This experimental coincident index for the Arizona economy is shown in the two charts with the recession periods shaded; the turning-point dates and magnitudes of change per cyclical episode are shown in the table below. 


The average statewide recession length in the post-war period was about 14 months with an average decline of about 11%.  However, the 2007-2010 recession was 36 months—slightly more than 2.5 times its average. The 2007-2010 recession was also nearly five times as severe as its average contraction depth.


The Arizona business cycle—as measured by this Arizona coincident index—has a mixed relationship with the U.S. business cycle.  During the post-WWII period, four U.S. business cycles were absent in Arizona—the 1957-58, 1960-61, 1969-70, and the 1980 recessions. Three of these U.S. cycles tended to be mild and may have been largely offset by underlying growth from migration to the state. However, this pattern seemingly has changed.  U.S. recessions have had a counterpart in Arizona consistently since 1981.

Research on the Arizona (statewide) business cycle.

Experimental
​Research