Western Blue Chip Consensus Economic Forecast for Arizona

Arizona Recession Probability Remains Low

References

Arizona Compositie Cyclcial Indicators

The probability of an Arizona recession is based on the composite leading indicaator and a calculated probability is derived statistically. This probability measures the risk of a nearterm (6-12 month) downturn in the state's economy.  The net contribution shows the components affecting the overall change in the leading indicator and the number of components available in the latest month's estimate.  The latest month's reading is preliminary and will change based on more complete information. 

Arizona Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

Arizona Composite Cyclical Indicators

Selected Arizona Economic Indicators

A Partnership Between The Retail Economist, LLC & the Arizona Department of Revenue

Net Contributions to Changes in Leading Indicator

October 2018

Current month data are preliminary and based on a more limited set of data.  These data are revised as more statistics become available.